MANILA, Philippines – Super Typhoon Haiyan's devastation of the central Philippines exerted a catastrophic human cost, but analysts say its economic impact will be less traumatic, AFP reported Wednesday (November 20th).
According to the International Labour Organisation, the storm disrupted or destroyed the livelihoods of five million people. Haiyan killed more than 4,000 people and displaced up to 4.4 million. Risk-modelling specialists, such as AIR Worldwide, forecast the total economic loss to be anywhere between $6.5 and $15 billion.
But the macroeconomic cost of Haiyan will be lighter than might have been expected from such a destructive storm, according to initial estimates from various sources.
The typhoon largely hit agricultural areas, missing the country's manufacturing base.
"The affected areas account for a relatively small proportion of GDP, so the impact on headline GDP is likely to be small and manageable," Credit Suisse said in a report that questioned forecasts suggesting that Haiyan would shave 1% off the 2013 annual growth rate.
The government had targeted gross domestic product growth of between 6.0% and 7.0% for the whole year, but may need to re-calibrate in the wake of Haiyan. The national economy expanded 7.6% in the first half of 2013.
The Philippine central bank indicated it would consider tweaking monetary policy if the typhoon's inflationary legacy persisted, but said economic growth goals for the year could still be met.
"There is a real opportunity here to encourage inclusive growth in a historically impoverished region that has been largely disconnected from those elements driving the national economy," said Ronald Mendoza, executive director of the Asian Institute of Management in Manila.
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